Last night I had a wander round the outside of our compound. There is an alleyway that links one part of Mirdif (my town) with the small supermarket on the other side...if you walk down that alley my bike is clearly visible over the wall. I never parked my bike there before and never thought it would be visible!
On top of that there are several fresh footprints in the sand on both sides of the compound wall directly opposite where my bike was parked.
My theory is that someone who lives on the far side of Mirdif that uses that alley to go to the supermarker saw my bike parked there some time on Friday and stole it the following morning. If they live on the far side of Mirdiff there are only 150 or so villas there...I have Thursday & Sunday off this week so I'm going on a mission to find it, I'll speak to every villa compound secuity guard on that side of Mirdif and knock on every door if I have to.